Grandview, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

632
FXUS63 KEAX 271132
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rain continues this morning across portions of
  north central Missouri.

- Heat and humidity increase today, with afternoon heat indices
  ranging from 105 to 110 degrees today through Tuesday.
- A heat advisory goes into effect at 11 AM today across the
      entire region and continues through 7 PM Tuesday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible to likely on Wednesday,
  with locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible once again.

- Much, much cooler temperatures likely for Thursday through
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Convection continues across portions of north central Missouri
this early morning along and north of weak surface trough
interacting with a subtle mid level vorticity max over central
Missouri. PWATs in these areas range from around 1.8 to 2 inches
per SPC mesoanalysis, with around 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE. Thus,
these are very efficient rain producers, and with additional
redevelopment to the west and training storms, rainfall up to
around 2" has fallen in the past couple of hours across portions
of Randolph, Livingston, and Linn Counties in Missouri. So far
rainfall totals have been just below flash flood guidance in
these heavier rainfall areas, and hopefully will continue to be.
All things considered we are doing alright for the shape we`re
in, as considerable flash flooding is ongoing across portions of
WFO St. Louis` area where PWATs are as high as 2.3 inches. CAMs
have struggled to accurately depict the current convection, with
the NAM Nest doing a better job than the HRRR. The NAM Nest
suggests convection continuing across north central MO for at
least a few more hours, so cannot completely rule out some flash
flooding concerns.

After the convection comes to an end by later this morning, the
primary forecast concern shifts to the heat and humidity. With
the 597 dam H5 high across the southeastern US and heat dome
expanding northward through our CWA along with absurdly high
dew points (upper 70s), heat indices this afternoon should climb
into the 105 to 110 range. As such, a heat advisory goes into
effect at 11 am for the entire CWA. A shortwave trough riding
along the northern periphery of the mid level ridge across the
Upper Midwest will likely initiate an MCS late tonight across
southern Minnesota, with this moving to the southeast through
the overnight and early morning hours of Monday. It is possible
that the southern edge of this MCS could approach our counties
across NE Missouri by early Monday morning, but for now have
kept our PoPs at or below 10%. As we head into Monday, the
center of the mid level high shifts westward into the mid to
lower Mississippi Valley, with mid level heights increasing over
the CWA. This should increase surface temperatures a bit, with
highs forecast to reach the low to mid 90s along with mid to
upper 70 dewpoints. This will once again send afternoon heat
indices into the 105 to 110 degree range. Unfortunately we will
not get much relief in the overnight period, with temperatures
remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Similar conditions are
expected to persist through Tuesday afternoon/evening. The CWA
wide heat advisory goes through 7 pm Tuesday, but cannot
completely rule out the upgrade to an extreme heat warning for
some areas. Regardless of the headline (heat advisory vs.
extreme heat warning), heat indices will be oppressive and
dangerous.

The mid level ridge begins to break down as we head into
Wednesday as a mid/upper trough is progged to descend out of the
Intermountain West and into the central CONUS, bringing a cold
front into the CWA and likely triggering showers and
thunderstorms. With PWATs around 2 inches, locally moderate to
heavy rainfall will be possible again, and as such WPC has
placed essentially the entire CWA within a slight risk for
excessive rainfall from 7 AM Wed through 7 AM Thursday. The
front may stall out across the region before slowly pushing
south toward the Ozarks by Thursday, so convection could linger
through Thursday afternoon. Much, much cooler temperatures are
forecast to arrive behind the front, with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s for Thursday and mid to upper 70s for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
this morning east of the terminals across portions of north
central Missouri, but dry weather and VFR conditions are
expected at the terminals through the period (although patchy
fog has developed at STJ reducing VIS to 6SM - this should mix
out by no later than 14z). Light southerly winds (10 knots or
less) are expected through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW